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Over the past several years, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) has introduced a series of reform initiatives aimed at modernising Pakistan’s capital-market framework. These have included digital account-opening mechanisms, risk-based supervision models, e-IPO processes, enhanced disclosure standards and regulatory sandboxes to encourage fintech and capital-market innovation.While these initiatives reflected institutional recognition of long-standing weaknesses, their real-world impact on market depth, liquidity, and participation has remained limited.The core challenge has not been the absence of reform activity, but rather the absence of a coherent, market-development-driven strategy. Implemented in isolation and without measurable developmental objectives, these reforms have failed to produce meaningful structural change.With the new SECP leadership now formally in place, the moment has shifted from reform signalling to outcomes delivery.Pakistan’s capital and commodities markets, primarily represented by the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and the Pakistan Mercantile Exchange (PMEX), remain strategically vital to the country’s financial architecture. Yet both continue to face deep-rooted structural distortions that require decisive intervention.Two structural fault lines undermining PSX and PMEXLimited market participation and its systemic consequencesChronic under-participation remains the single most damaging constraint across both equity and commodity markets.Thin market depth continues to undermine:• Efficient and credible price discovery• Liquidity and capital-raising capacity• Investor confidence and institutional credibilityIn several segments, practitioners openly question whether price formation reflects genuine supply-demand dynamics or merely shallow, concentrated trading. When participation is narrow and transactional activity is limited, exchanges struggle to fulfil their fundamental role in capital formation and risk transfer.A market without broad-based participation risks becoming structurally fragile; vulnerable to volatility, manipulation concerns, and declining investor trust.In a nutshell, an equity exchange loses its economic relevance when fair price discovery is impaired and capital-raising becomes unviable due to insufficient investor participation. Expanding investor participation must therefore become a core performance benchmark for the new SECP leadership.Black-market commodity trading and regulatory leakageThe second major structural distortion lies in the continued presence of unregulated and parallel commodity trading channels, particularly affecting PMEX.Market participants report that:• Significant trading volumes occur outside the regulated exchange ecosystem• Retail investors face heightened fraud and counterparty risk• Certain transactions are routed offshore, contributing to foreign-exchange leakageThis informal parallel market undermines regulatory credibility, weakens exchange liquidity, and erodes investor protection.Acknowledgment of the problem is no longer sufficient. The credibility of the new SECP leadership will depend on visible, technology-driven, and even-handed enforcement across both commodities and equities.Without decisive action, regulated exchanges will remain structurally disadvantaged relative to unregulated channels.From diagnosis to delivery: what SECP must now doWith leadership transition complete, attention must shift to execution. Addressing participation constraints and eliminating illegal parallel trading requires regulatory recalibration and institutional strengthening.Shift from procedural control to market enablementFor years, stakeholders have argued that SECP’s regulatory culture has leaned toward procedural rigidity rather than developmental facilitation.The new leadership must redefine regulatory success to include measurable improvements in:• Active investor growth• Liquidity expansion• Product innovation• Market competitivenessRegulation must protect markets, but it must also enable them.Remove friction in account opening and KYCOnboarding remains one of the most immediate barriers to participation.Despite partial digitization, the process is often cumbersome, repetitive, and fragmented.A clear inefficiency illustrates the problem:Every investor opening a brokerage account is required to complete full KYC procedures even though the same investor has already undergone comprehensive KYC and AML verification when opening a bank account under stringent regulatory standards. The duplication of verified information creates unnecessary delays, increases compliance costs, and discourages new entrants without delivering proportionate risk mitigation benefits.The SECP must therefore:• Implement fully digital, paperless onboarding• Introduce unified verification mechanisms• Recognize or integrate bank-verified KYC to eliminate duplication• Establish rapid account activation timelines• Align onboarding standards with international best practiceReducing entry friction is one of the fastest ways to improve market depth.Rationalize compliance without weakening oversightExcessive reporting layers and procedural redundancies impose hidden economic costs.Industry feedback consistently highlights:• Disproportionate time spent on low-impact compliance• Reduced innovation capacity• Regulatory hesitation around product developmentThe objective must be risk-based, proportional supervision; maintaining investor protection while eliminating operational drag that stifles growth.Strengthen enforcement against illegal market activityTo counter black-market commodity trading and offshore routing, SECP must adopt:• Technology-enabled surveillance systems• Data-driven detection of irregular flows• Uniform enforcement across equities and commodities• Swift, visible action against fraudulent operatorsEnforcement credibility will be central to restoring trust in regulated exchanges.Close the institutional capacity gapNone of these reforms can succeed without strengthening SECP’s own internal capabilities.The regulatory complexity of modern financial markets requires:• Upgraded technical and supervisory expertise• Recruitment and retention of specialized market professionals• Deployment of advanced surveillance and risk-monitoring tools• Strengthened policy research and analytical capacity• Dedicated market-development functions within the institutionInstitutional capability is not a secondary issue; it is the foundation upon which effective regulation rests.Introduce clear, market-development KPIsRegulatory performance must be measured not only by enforcement actions, but by market outcomes.Annual performance benchmarks should include:• Growth in active investor accounts• Reduction in onboarding timelines• Increased product diversity• Improved liquidity and turnover ratios• Expansion in digital participationLeadership accountability must extend beyond procedural compliance to measurable development outcomes.Conclusion: A defining moment for SECPWith new leadership firmly in place, Pakistan’s financial markets have entered a decisive phase.The two central structural failures are clear:Chronic under-participation weakening market depth and price discoveryPersistent black-market commodity trading undermining regulatory credibilityAddressing these issues requires more than incremental adjustments. It demands a regulator that is:• Development-oriented rather than defensive• Digitally enabled rather than paper-bound• Proactive rather than reactive• Transparent and predictable• Accountable through measurable market-development benchmarksIf the current leadership moves decisively beyond reform rhetoric and delivers structural outcomes, Pakistan’s capital and commodities markets can finally achieve the depth, credibility, and vibrancy long promised but not yet realized.Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
In a significant development, the US Supreme Court issued a ruling on last Friday that prevents the US President from imposing tariffs, determining that such actions exceed presidential authority and are illegal, as congressional approval is necessary to implement tariffs, which was not acquired.This means that the refund process could amount to anywhere between USD 120 billion and USD 175 billion, with some estimates suggesting that under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the figure could be approximately USD 130 billion. The total potential tariff collection could be nearly double that amount.However, this will be a challenging task, as the court has warned it could become chaotic due to the involvement of millions of producers and consumers.US importers and businesses that have paid duties to Customs will be the ones benefiting from these refunds. Politicians are already urging the administration to issue the refunds directly via checks. Technically, if the tariff refunds are distributed, prices should decrease. However, history shows that business owners often only partially pass on cost savings to consumers, which could also help alleviate inflationary pressures to the certain extent.President Donald Trump has indicated that he has a contingency plan regarding tariffs, suggesting that this issue will continue to persist and could bring uncertainty into the global financial market.This latest development does not signify the conclusion of the trade war, as the administration is likely still exploring other avenues.Although the Supreme Court has overruled the administration’s authority, the US President quickly announced a 10% global tariff on imports from all countries through an executive order, which can remain in effect for up to 150 days without congressional consent, aimed at addressing balance of payments issues.Meanwhile, last week’s release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes indicated a lack of consensus on potential rate cuts, showing divided opinions among members. It noted that while inflation has eased from previous highs, it remains elevated compared to the 2% target, suggesting that any decision to lower rates may be postponed as concerns about inflation still prevail. The decision on timing for any rate reductions will largely depend on upcoming US economic data, which currently does not support a rate cut in March.In other developments, tensions between the US and Iran continue to overshadow the market, with no clear indication of what the future holds. The second round of negotiations is currently taking place, leaving market observers speculating on whether diplomatic efforts will succeed or if the US will resort to military action should discussions fail.The influence of geopolitical risks on the financial market is selective. Oil prices remain elevated, while gold and silver consistently attract buyers when their prices decline.In terms of other asset prices, market participants are exercising caution in their selections. The dollar has also strengthened against major currencies.In addition, the fourth quarter US GDP dropped significantly to 1.4 percent, falling short of the anticipated 2.8 percent, a reflection of the severe effects of the longest government shutdown in US history. Furthermore, the trade deficit widened in December.On a more positive note, recently released data on durable goods orders, industrial production, and manufacturing output has shown improved results.Meanwhile, the recent spike in gold prices over the past few days can primarily be attributed to safe-haven demand amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.The US Supreme Court’s decision regarding tariffs has also pushed gold prices above USD 5,100. A similar response in Asia may be expected on Monday, but I doubt gold will see significant immediate gains without fresh updates from the Middle East or a major announcement from the US regarding tariffs.This suggests that although gold may rise, it could just as easily fall back at the same rate without new information from either front.Nevertheless, the global financial market seems poised for another period of volatility unless a clear direction emerges.WEEKLY OUTLOOK — FEB 23-27GOLD @ USD 5104— To maintain its upward trajectory, gold must surpass the resistance level of USD 5190 to target USD 5260 and higher. A failure to rise could lead to a decline. If it drops under USD 4960, we may see a test of the support level at USD 4880. But for more losses to occur, it needs to fall below that support level. Otherwise, gold is likely to remain in a volatile trading range.EURO @ 1.1782— Euro has solid support at 1.1685 and is likely to hold above that level. If it breaks through 1.1860, it could lead to a rise toward 1.1905. Alternatively, there is support at 1.1625.GBP @ 1.3484— As long as the Pound Sterling can maintain the support level of 1.3340, it is anticipated to gradually strengthen. A move above 1.3590 is required to test 1.3635.JPY @ 155.07— The USD/JPY pair needs to break above 156.70 to continue its upward trend for 157.40. While it remains below this level, Yen buyers will keep purchasing USD during price declines. Support levels are at 154.05 and 153.20.Copyright Business Recorder, 2026