forexlive19d ago
BOJ should hike in June and signal clear rate path, SMFG markets chief says Citi reiterate forecast for a 25bp RBA rate hike at the Bank's August meeting. Nvidia's Huang says supply secured for robust AI growth despite constraints Australia's net trade and flat government spending cloud GDP outlook S&P 500 futures analysis today: ES JUN26 fails repair near 7632 Japan one step from historic yen collapse, SMBC Nikko warns Australia widening current account deficit, inventory draw to weigh on Q1 GDP Ethereum Analysis Today: ETH Repairs From Washout, But Bulls Need Acceptance Above 2020.5 White House trims tariffs on farm and industrial gear, tweaks metals regime PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8187 (vs. estimate at 6.7720) RBA's hawkish Harper hints herald hike Tokyo and Washington closely monitoring forex markets together, finance minister confirms Japan eyes sales tax cut from 2027 but bond market (and yen!) risks loom large RBNZ risks crushing already weakened economy to contain oil-driven inflation Kiwibank warn Commerzbank lifts Brent to $90 on Hormuz closure, no return to pre-war prices South Korea May 2026 inflation data higher than expected, keeps BoK on hike alert Israel PM contradicts Trump, will continue operating against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon Trump says Hormuz deal is "looking good" but his credibility gap keeps markets on edge BofA contrarian sell signal nears trigger as S&P optimism hits highest since February 2025 Oil's biggest single-day gain in weeks as Middle East tensions flare again ICYMI! Strategy sells Bitcoin for first time since 2022, breaking "never sell" pledge Record close for the major indices once again Key points: Trump told ABC News a Hormuz ceasefire extension and reopening deal could come within a week, but markets gave the remarks little credit given his track record on conflict timelines White House cut tariffs on agricultural equipment including combines and harvesters, a rare Trump concession on trade Australia lifted its minimum wage by 4.75%; RBA board member Harper sounded a hawkish note on inflation, adding to the case for an August hike Australian Q1 data pointed to a soft Wednesday GDP print, with net trade subtracting 0.8 percentage points and government spending flat Japan is pursuing a food sales tax cut from 8% to 1% from April 2027, a move with bond market implications already demonstrated when Takaichi first floated the plan in January Finance Minister Katayama flagged close US-Japan forex coordination; USD/JPY was quiet around 159.70 Alphabet announced an $80 billion equity raise for AI infrastructure, including a $10 billion private placement from Berkshire Hathaway Trump told ABC News he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week. Trump is credibility-challenged on this front, however, and his remarks went largely unheeded by markets. Further from the US, and in a welcome climbdown, the White House said it will reduce tariffs on agricultural equipment such as combines and harvesters to ease costs for American farmers and manufacturers. Australia lifted its minimum wage by 4.75%. Separately, Reserve Bank of Australia board member Ian Harper sounded a hawkish note, saying stronger-than-expected domestic demand and the return of capacity constraints have reopened the output gap, prompting markets to price in further policy action. Harper flagged persistent inflation as a genuine concern, noting that market-based inflation measures have moved higher, which he described as worrying. The RBA meets next on June 15 and 16, where a pause is widely expected, but the faster rise in award wages alongside Harper's comments on inflation expectations add to the case for another hike, most likely in August. Australian data today indicated the GDP print due Wednesday is shaping up as a soft one, with net trade subtracting 0.8 percentage points, well beyond the 0.5 points forecast, and government spending contributing nothing. Inventories adding 0.2 points provides only partial offset, leaving household consumption and business investment to carry the quarter. Japanese media reported that Japan's government is pursuing a food sales tax cut from 8% to 1% from April 2027 for two years. The proposal carries bond market implications that have already been road-tested: Prime Minister Takaichi's initial announcement in January caused a spike in yields as investors priced in further deterioration of Japan's already stretched fiscal position. A confirmed rollout would likely revive that pressure. Finance Minister Katayama subsequently weighed in with intervention warnings, confirming that Japan is closely coordinating with the United States on foreign exchange, with both sides actively monitoring conditions. USD/JPY did little on the session, sitting around 159.70, with the dollar quiet more broadly. It was a subdued day across markets generally, with South Korean and Japanese equities pulling back from recent record highs. On the corporate front, Alphabet announced a proposed $80 billion equity capital raise to expand AI infrastructure and compute capacity, comprising a $30 billion underwritten offering, a $40 billion at-the-market programme, and a $10 billion private placement from Berkshire Hathaway. -- Australia's cash rate, inflation rate, and the wage hike above both: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
