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As of February 19, 2026, the KSE-100 Index experienced a significant downturn in recent sessions, closing at 172,170.29 points, a decline of -3.74 percent (-6,682.80 points) from the previous close.The index saw a sharp decline, reaching a low of 171,647.33 and closing at 172,170.29, following a high of 179,279.74. This index was at 44,000 in 2021. This shows an increase of over 425 percent. The market capitalization of Pakistan Stock Exchange has been as under:========================================================Period Market Cap (PKR) Market Cap (USD)========================================================June 2020 (FY) 6.5 trillion USD 39.25 billionDec 2020 (CY) 8.04 trillion ~USD 50 billion*Dec 2025 (CY) 19.69 trillion USD 70.25 billion========================================================As against KSE 100 the all share index moved from 30,000 to 104,000 from 2021 to 2025. This shows that the Pakistan Stock Exchange has performed very well in the past five years. The free-float market capitalization is around 53 billion USD. The question before us is whether or not this illusory sum of USD 70 billion has any direct impact on the economy of the country and the life of common people of Pakistan. The writer has a conservative view on the matter, which has been explained in the following paragraphs. The reason is as noted below. It is being acknowledged by the general investor in Pakistan; therefore, the real number of people in the stock market has effectively not increased over decades. It is a traders’ market. This raises the question whether it is a balloon and that too has been blown bigger than its size. It is hoped that it is not so; however, there have been serious issues on that account in 2005 and 2008.This market is a small fraction of Pakistan’s economy. In 2025, Pakistan’s nominal GDP was approximately USD 407–411 billion. The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) market capitalization saw significant growth, closing the year around USD 70.25 billion (PKR 19.69 trillion), with the market cap-to-GDP ratio around 17 percent. In comparison, in 2025, India’s nominal GDP is projected to be approximately USD 4.13 trillion. Concurrently, the total market capitalization of the Indian stock market (BSE and NSE combined) crossed the USD 5 trillion mark in early 2025, driven by strong corporate earnings and domestic investment inflows. This comes to around 130 percent. Total GDP of the USA (2025): Approximately USD 30.3 trillion – USD 30.62 trillion (Nominal USD). Total Market Capitalization of Nasdaq reported at approximately USD 32.0 trillion to USD 35.6 trillion by Q3 2025 is around 100 percent.In Pakistan, the total number of companies listed on PSX in 2021 was 533; now they are 535. It is important to note that as on June 30, 2005, 659 companies were listed on KSE.The growth in stock exchange valuation is not commensurate with the growth in overall GDP of the country. Pakistan’s GDP in 2021 was approximately USD 348.5 billion in current USD. Pakistan’s nominal GDP in 2025 is estimated to be approximately USD 407 billion to USD 410.5 billion. There is hardly any increase in the overall GDP of the country. If so, what is the reason for the increase in the KSE-100 Index? The first reason is the profits of the banks which constitute a major contributor in KSE-100 Index. The table will describe the position:=======================Year Profit After Tax (PAT)=======================2024 Rs 644 Billion2023 Rs 642.2 Billion2022 Rs 336 Billion2021 Rs 264 Billion2020 Rs 244 Billion=======================After tax profits of banks emanate from the interest paid to them by the Government of Pakistan on the sums borrowed by the GOP. This means that banks with a high spread with a large number of current accounts run a risk-free portfolio of lending to the GOP. Banks make huge profits; therefore, their equity in the stock exchange carries a high value. For traders, it is a good product; however, it has a negative impact on the economy.It would be interesting if we examine the increase in the market capitalization of one such share being Meezan Bank Limited which reached in December 2025 PKR 800.13 billion from PKR 218.19 billion in 2021. This reflects Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio from 3.39x and 9.40x over the last five fiscal years (2020–2024) and into early 2026. The payout is totally not commensurate with the valuation in the market. It is a product good for speculation.The other sector showing exceptional results is listed oil and gas companies. The results were as under:===========================================================Fiscal Year OGDCL PPL Mari Petroleum PSO===========================================================2024-25 169.9 92.0 65.4 20.92023-24 208.9 114.3 77.3 15.82022-23 224.6* 97.9 56.1* 5.7*2021-22 133.8* 53.5 33.1* 86.2*2020-21 91.5* 52.4 31.4* 29.1*===========================================================Major reasons for increase are higher wellhead prices and indexation, and a substantial increase in the wellhead price. For example, in Mari Gas Field (61 percent jump in FY23) along with increased dollar indexation contributed heavily to revenue growth. Depreciation of the Pakistani Rupee against the US Dollar increased revenue, as many of the company’s gas prices are linked to USD, benefiting top-line growth. This shows that real growth is not the factor in increase in earnings of such companies.Another important aspect to note is that whatever is happening is being done in Pakistani rupee. The status of foreign investment reflects that despite the KSE-100 index witnessing a record bull run, foreign investors remained net sellers, pulling out USD 393 million. In 2024 (FY24), Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) was positive at USD 175.68 million, showing a brief reversal in trend. 2020–2023: For most of this period, foreign investors largely divested from Pakistani equity markets, continuing a long-term trend of selling that saw outflows of hundreds of millions of dollars annually. Based on data for 2025, foreign investors have maintained a relatively low and cautious presence in PSX despite the market’s strong performance, with foreign ownership of shares hovering around 14.3 percent–14.4 percent as of early 2026, largely reflecting the position throughout 2025. This means that this boom may provide an exit time for the foreign investors putting more pressure on our foreign exchange position. This has to be reversed by actual net inflow.As of February 19, 2026, the BSE Sensex has shown growth over the past five years, with an approximate increase of 62.11 percent only. This is to be seen with reference to the fact that BSE and NSE were 1 trillion USD in 2007, which is now USD 5 trillion in 2026 and there are around 5500 companies listed on the exchange having over 120 million investors. Pakistan has around 230,000 investors only.In summary, it means that the volatility and increase in the KSE-100 Index is not supported by any tangible productivity increase in the overall economy of the country. The market players are making money in the scrips where there are actual profits on account reasons explained above. However, substantial variations in prices can be made with a limited sum of money as the free floats are quite low in Pakistan. For example, the free float of Meezan Bank Limited is only 25 percent whereas HDFC Bank being the largest private sector bank of India operates with a 100 percent public free float, as it has no promoter or promoter group holding. It is therefore suggested that stock exchange regulators should keep a close eye on the movement and make suitable changes in the KSE-100 Index to bring the same in line with the overall economic reality of Pakistan. Stock exchanges are for raising capital not for making profits through speculations.Copyright Business Recorder, 2026