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Singapore-based DBS Bank Ltd stated that the Philippine peso is emerging as one of Asia’s most vulnerable currencies as deepening global oil crisis exposes the nation’s heavy reliance on imported energy and the lack of government subsidies. DBS wrote in a commentary published last Friday that the peso is expected to underperform in the foreign exchange (forex) market alongside the Indian rupee, which recently hit a record low against the United States (US) dollar. The peso also plummeted to another all-time low last Friday, finishing at P60.55 per dollar. Like India, the Philippines is grappling with vulnerabilities from oil price shocks, which have led the peso to reach a new all-time low, according to DBS senior forex strategist Philip Wee and forex and credit strategist Chang Wei Liang. “Similarly, the peso remains highly vulnerable,” Wee and Liang said. Last Friday, the peso breached the 60.5 level as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified, and the central bank stood firm in its view that there is no immediate need to defend the currency. Wee and Liang said the Philippines stands as “most exposed to oil price pass-through due to zero subsidies and a 90 percent energy reliance on Gulf energy.” Japanese financial giant MUFG Bank Ltd. and think tank Capital Economics also emphasized the Philippines’ high exposure to external market volatility, which is hurting the peso amid investors’ risk-off sentiment. MUFG analysts said the peso is among the “weakest performers in the region” last week, declining by a total of 4.9 percent since the Israel-Iran conflict flare-up. It was surpassed only by the Thai baht, which has dropped 5.9 percent month-to-date. Following the peso are the declines in the South Korean won (4.7 percent), Indian rupee (4.1 percent), and Malaysian ringgit (three percent). Meanwhile, the Vietnamese dong and Chinese yuan have been the most resilient currencies, with only around a one percent decline each. DBS said that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is facing a dilemma: it must contain skyrocketing consumer prices while defending the peso amid extreme vulnerability to the worsening energy crisis, with the impacts more pronounced in heavy oil-importing economies. Citing metrics from an Institute of International Finance (IIF) study, Wee and Liang labeled the currencies of the Philippines, South Korea, and Malaysia as “somewhat vulnerable” to oil price spikes stemming from the Middle East war. Such metrics include direct trade exposure to oil imports, the growth impact of oil usage intensity, and vulnerability to agricultural and fertilizer supply shocks. DBS assessed India, Thailand, and Vietnam as the most vulnerable to oil market shocks, while China and Indonesia are the least sensitive. Despite the peso\'s recent weakness, DBS projects the local currency to rebound toward 57.8 per dollar by the end of 2026. However, the pair is also seen climbing back to 59.9 by late 2027 and remaining within the 59 level through 2030. Output growth, the recovery of which justified the BSP’s decision to hold the existing policy rate, is forecast to gradually accelerate to five percent in 2026, but stagnate at this pace through next year. DBS still anticipates subdued inflation this year, clocking in at a within-target 2.4 percent before stabilizing at two percent in 2027. The BSP has forecast price growth to overshoot the four-percent ceiling the government has set, which is deemed manageable and conducive to economic growth. BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. argued there remains no need to defend the peso, as its ongoing depreciation is still beneficial to the country’s current account deficit, which DBS sees remaining unchanged until 2027 at 2.5 percent. The budget deficit of 5.3 percent is also expected to remain at this level through next year, reflecting a stable but persistent fiscal and external gap. Further BSP easing? Despite the BSP’s more defined hawkish stance, DBS still expects the central bank to reduce the current monetary policy rate by a quarter of a point to four percent, a rate it sees steadying through 2027. For the Dutch financial giant ING, the central bank’s challenging task of balancing surging oil-driven inflation against a fragile economy would prompt the monetary authorities to keep rates unchanged at 4.25 percent. “Given this weaker growth setting, and assuming the current conflict eases soon, our base case is that the BSP remains on hold in April,” said Deepali Bhargava, ING regional head of research for Asia-Pacific (APAC). Similarly, UOB expects the BSP to keep the benchmark rate unchanged until the first quarter of 2027. Rather than committing to a fixed plan, the Singaporean lender said it expects the BSP to maintain “a meeting-by-meeting approach while closely monitoring external developments.” “During the post-meeting briefing, the BSP Governor did not rule out the possibility of additional off-cycle meetings should the Middle East conflict escalate and pose more immediate economic risks,” Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting, UOB senior economist and economist, respectively, noted. Further, MUFG said: “Market pricing continues to reflect expectations of policy tightening across the Asia region and the US, rather than imminent easing. This is most pronounced in the Philippines.” Remolona also signaled readiness to inject liquidity into the local financial system should the situation warrant it. The BSP could lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) from the current five percent to around two percent, but this was seen as offering limited support. “Policy remains constrained, despite weak growth, given the risks of higher inflation due to energy shock,” Goh and Ting said. Bhargava lowered her gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the year to 4.5 percent from 5.2 percent previously. This now falls massively short of the government’s minimum target of five percent. For her outlook revision, Bhargava cited the continued sharp contraction in government spending that dragged on local growth in 2025, the country’s current sensitivity to surging imported fuel costs, and a cooling labor market. Last week, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a state of national energy emergency amid persistent oil price and supply risks, which threaten to drain the country’s energy reserves and destabilize the economy. ING noted that the jobless rate increased to 5.8 percent in early 2026 from 3.8 percent seen late last year. “Weaker government spending has now translated into softer private investment, job losses, and a slowdown in wage gains. These trends are likely to intensify as higher oil prices raise production costs, discourage hiring, and compress real incomes,” Bhargava said. Bhargava also said that the US dollar-peso pair hitting above 61 “remains a clear risk,” in light of a robust greenback and limited intervention from the BSP. While the BSP priced in 3.5 percent inflation for March, ING believes inflation could already overshoot four percent as early as March, especially if Brent crude prices surge roughly 40 percent month-on-month. This, according to Bhargava, increases the likelihood that the central bank will pivot toward an interest rate hike at the upcoming April 23 policy meeting. The BSP kept the key borrowing costs unchanged when it held an off-cycle meeting last week.
Philippine companies are growing more optimistic about the broader economic outlook even as they scale back plans to expand operations, citing intense market competition and the lingering weight of high interest rates. “Businesses expect steady consumer demand throughout the year. Firms also see higher public works spending and ongoing governance reforms supporting economic growth in 2026,” the BSP said. According to the February Business Expectations Survey (BES) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), the share of businesses in the industry sector with expansion plans in the near term dropped. “Some respondents expressed optimism in the short term but remained cautious about their expansion plans,” the BSP said. Data showed the share of firms with plans to expand over the next three months declined to 11.6 percent from 14.1 percent previously. For the year ahead, expansion plans dropped from nearly one-fourth of all respondent firms to 14.2 percent. Last month, local companies reported having more available cash on hand while simultaneously finding it harder to secure external loans from the banking system. However, overall, the confidence index (CI) for the next 12 months climbed to 51.1 percent in February from 38.6 percent in the previous month. A positive CI indicates that more respondents are optimistic than pessimistic or anticipate “easy” conditions regarding the business outlook. Meanwhile, a negative index signals the opposite: more firms are pessimistic or expect “tight” conditions, such as restricted access to credit. “Businesses expect steady consumer demand throughout the year. Firms also see higher public works spending and ongoing governance reforms supporting economic growth in 2026,” the BSP said. Recall that government spending, especially on infrastructure, sharply declined in the second half of 2025 as the government tightened its grip on public funds following the eruption of flood control corruption. Business confidence in the overall economic outlook improved for both the quarter and the year ahead. For the next three months, the CI climbed to 37.4 percent from 33.3 percent, while over the next 12 months it rose to 51.1 percent from 38.6 percent. Firms anticipate short-term economic growth to be propped up by favorable weather, strong summer sales, and a pickup in government spending as investor confidence returns. On prices, businesses expect the inflation rate to continue accelerating through next year. Note that the survey ended before the flare-up of the Israel-Iran military tensions. “The sustained recovery in business confidence and stable inflation expectations will therefore depend on how long the conflict lasts and how it affects the domestic economy,” the BSP said. Regarding the peso\'s strength, local businesses are more optimistic in the short term, while the long-term view is somewhat somber. Firms expect the US dollar-peso exchange rate to average 58.76 over the next quarter and modestly weaken to 58.94 over the year ahead. It can be noted, however, that the ongoing direction of foreign exchange (forex) movements points to an even weaker peso. Last Friday, the peso tumbled to a fresh record low, breaching the 60.5 level as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified and the BSP signaled it sees no immediate need to defend the currency.
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