forbesindia40d ago
India’s upcoming 2022-23 GDP series integrates several high frequency datasets, including GST and Vahan, and surveys like HCES and ASUSE to capture a more granular picture of the post-pandemic economy.The revision will for the first time use the three surveys—household consumption expenditure surveys (HCES), the survey on unincorporated sector entreprises (ASUSE) and the labour force survey (PLFS)—to produce expenditure-side estimates of India’s economic growth, according to a report by the Sub-Committee on Incorporation of New Data Sources, Rates and Ratios.India’s new GDP series is set to release on February 27.Measuring private consumptionHCES 2022-23 will now serve as the primary anchor for benchmark estimates for measuring private consumption—the single largest component of GDP by expenditure. The HCES data enables direct estimation of what consumers actually spend across food, transport, services and durables.Informal sector trackingAn important revision in the GDP calculations is the move away from static proxies for the informal economy. For the first time, government will use regular data from the ASUSE and PLFS surveys eliminating the need for the older “Labour Input Method” and its reliance on benchmark extrapolations. This ensures a continuous flow of information on value-added and output for the unincorporated sector.Also Read: New GDP series adopts double deflation using refined price indicatorsCalculating investmentCapital formation estimates will now draw on the latest rounds of two key surveys—ASUSE 2023-24 and the All India Debt and Investment Survey (AIDIS)—replacing older benchmark data.Funds disbursed under the Member of Parliament Local Area Development Scheme will be used to determine how capital investment is distributed across industries and asset types. The shift means that capital investment figures will now move with actual parliamentary spending patterns each year, rather than being locked into a base-year distribution.Finally, the rates and ratios used to estimate household investment in valuables, gold, jewellery and similar assets that Indians have long favoured as a store of wealth will no longer be fixed at base-year levels. They will instead be derived fresh each year from the results of the Annual Survey of Industries and the ASUSE.The sub-committee also floated the idea of bringing antiques, paintings and sculptures within the scope of valuables estimation—a category currently absent from the national accounts. While the AIDIS does capture household spending on paintings and artistic originals, the data is neither regular nor comprehensive enough to support a reliable annual estimate.High frequency trackersGST data is being deployed more ambitiously in the new series. Product-wise GST filings will feed directly into the compilation of the Quarterly National Accounts.GST records will now be used to identify active private corporations, allowing for more precise GVA imputations for non-reporting firms.The new GDP series also uses GST outward supply data to replace proxy indicators, ensuring gross state domestic product accurately reflects where corporate activity occurs across states rather than relying on assumptions.Moreover, vehicle registrations from the Vahan database provide actual vehicle counts to accurately estimate household spending on road transport services in the new series.
