organiser17d ago
For the past year, the world has become entangled in a new kind of challenge. After the rise of Donald Trump as President of the United States (US), there has been turmoil across the globe. This upheaval is visible not only in trade and economic spheres, but also in political, strategic, and military domains. The President of the United States is not the leader of an ordinary country. It is not only the world’s most powerful and prosperous nation today, but for more than a hundred years it has maintained a deep and wide-ranging grip across the globe. Whether it is the seas, the skies, or the land, from space stations to nuclear submarines in the deepest oceans, America has an extensive global military apparatus. From the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) to the West Asia, it has built a vast network of political, trade, and military alliances. Its total trade, with imports and exports combined, amounts to nearly 6 trillion dollars, involving almost every country in the world. It possesses the world’s largest military force, with an annual budget of nearly one trillion dollars, which is planned to be increased to 1.5 trillion dollars this year. Its dominance in science and technology continues to sustain its position as a major global power. A new reality, however, has emerged. The United States has been troubled by persistent trade deficits. Manufacturing within the country has declined sharply. Now, it seeks to divert the flow of global wealth towards itself at any cost. Earlier, in the 1940s and 1950s, it established institutions such as the United Nations, the World Bank, and the IMF to ensure that global financial flows remained centered on itself. When these institutions no longer seemed sufficiently useful, it promoted the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) negotiations and later, in 1995, the World Trade Organization (WTO). When these too failed to deliver the desired advantage, the same country that once championed globalisation and liberalisation now feels industrially and economically insecure and seeks to erect a wall of tariffs around itself. The Tariff Tribulation Whether friend, foe, or neutral, every country has been subjected to tariffs. In fact, higher tariffs have often been imposed on allies. Canada faces tariffs of 35 per cent, Bharat 50 per cent, and Europe has also been subjected to unilateral measures. In the case of Greenland, there are even discussions of further tariffs. Tariffs have thus emerged as a new kind of economic nuclear weapon, used to intimidate the world and redirect wealth flows towards the United States. Questions of morality, legality, or international norms seem irrelevant. Many believe this is happening solely because of Donald Trump. This is not true. Trump may be outspoken and impulsive in speech, but the underlying thinking is embedded in America’s structural processes. Whether Democratic or Republican, and regardless of influential think tanks, the focus remains on American interests—or more precisely, the interests of powerful American lobbies, not even the ordinary American citizen. Even if tariffs lead to inflation and hardship for common Americans, it causes little concern. Concern for global humanity is out of the question; even domestic inequality does not seem to matter. Democracy, rule-based global order, and ethics are upheld only as long as they benefit American interests. Otherwise, self-interest is placed above all else without delay. If Russia wants Ukraine, the United States wants Venezuela’s oil and Greenland’s land. It expects all countries to pay a new kind of tax in the form of tariffs, simply because it is a large economy and a military power. Europe is deeply troubled by the Greenland issue and increasingly opposed to the US. Canada is openly referred to as a prospective US state. As a result, Canada, that is historically distrustful of China, has begun engaging with it, with its Prime Minister visiting China and also planning a visit to India. The Saga of Maga Why is the United States acting this way? To understand this, one must look back. After World War II, the US invited talent from across the world to develop its science, technology, and industry. Brilliant young minds and entrepreneurs migrated there, leading to numerous innovations. The US earns enormous income from intellectual property rights—nearly 9 trillion dollars, about 30 per cent of its GDP. Over decades, however, native Americans grew increasingly comfortable, preferring investments in stock markets and earning from IP and equity in companies built by immigrant talent, while enjoying a life of leisure. As a result, productivity among native citizens declined. Over the last 60–70 years, large numbers of people from Bharat and China migrated to the US. This has created a perception among native Americans that their demographics are under threat and jobs are being taken over by outsiders. The Republican Party capitalised on these sentiments during the last election, promising jobs for native Americans, expulsion of outsiders, control of inflation, and preservation of White Christian dominance. This led to the rise of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) constituency that forms Trump’s core support. A major miscalculation is evident here. Those hardworking, intelligent, and entrepreneurial people who played a key role in building modern America are now being treated as outsiders. This resentment cannot be easily accepted. The Democratic Party has amplified this voice. Moreover, if these people leave or are marginalised, America itself will decline. Artificial measures such as tariffs and costly membership schemes may temporarily sustain wealth, but in the long run, the weakening of the American economy appears inevitable, even if it takes time. Pathway for Bharat The most important question is: what is the path for Bharat in this situation? Is there any near-term solution? Every great challenge also brings a great opportunity. This is perhaps the biggest global challenge of our time. If Bharat resolves to transform this challenge into an opportunity, it can assume a new global role. For this, Bharat must rapidly strengthen itself economically and strategically, while also preparing to lead the many countries distressed and intimidated by American [...]
