Noticias Financieras

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afrhace 11d

Hamilton Wealth calls politicisation of Federal Reserve ‘a disgrace’

The firm said the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair came amid a dangerous period for the central bank, as inflationary pressures again posed risks.

#ECONOMY

yorkshiretimes_ukhace 11d

IoD: Business Confidence Jumps In January

The IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index, which measures business leader optimism in prospects for the UK economy, jumped to -48 in January 2026, from -66 in December 2025. Business leader confidence in their own organisations also jumped, to +14 in January from -4 in December.]]>

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thenightly_auhace 11d

THE ECONOMIST: Why software stocks like Salesforce, Workday, SAP and ServiceNow are getting pummelled

Are investors overestimating the risk from AI?

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brecorderhace 11d

Retroactive taxation and FDI

EDITORIAL: The government continues to emphasise foreign direct investment (FDI) as a cornerstone of economic revival. However, at the same time, the tax authority is extracting disproportionate revenue from the formal corporate sector to meet ambitious targets, with little focus on broadening the tax base.A recent manifestation of this approach, for example, is the judgement by the Federal Constitutional Court, which upheld the retrospective application of the super tax. This may help the FBR raise around Rs300 billion to cover this year’s shortfall without a mini-budget. However, the critical question remains: how can FDI be attracted to the formal corporate sector when the highest court in the land has held that taxes and policies can be applied/changed retroactively?This is one of the key reasons why the government continues to struggle in attracting investment despite achieving macroeconomic stability and benefiting from geopolitical tailwinds. FDI has declined by 43 percent to USD 809 million from an already low base, making it the third lowest level as a percentage of GDP over the past 20 years. The imposition of backdated levies is detrimental to investor confidence, especially when justified as an exercise of sovereign power. The government and regulators need to rethink their strategy and recognise that large formal-sector investments are the primary gateway for substantial FDI inflows.As tax rates rise, incentives to conceal sales increase. This partly explains why large business groups are expanding into retail and real estate, opening malls, and focusing on domestic markets. One of the largest textile exporters has openly stated that it has no plans to invest further in export-oriented businesses, while expanding its domestic retail footprint and exploring import-substitution ventures. Retail investments can enable partial sales concealment and cash generation, which can be moved abroad through informal channels such as hundi-hawala or crypto instruments—an emerging trend. As a result, foreign investors step back. Unsurprisingly, several multinational firms in pharmaceuticals, FMCG, and other sectors are exiting the market.It is important to note that government spokespersons often argue that this is healthy, citing mergers and acquisitions and domestic buyers stepping in. While this may partly be true, a deeper trend is visible: many acquisitions are driven by trapped liquidity—formal cash that cannot be remitted due to implicit restrictions. In some cases, sellers, however, still have legal avenues to move funds abroad. A critical priority is to provide investors with confidence to bring capital into the country, reinvest profits locally, and commit to formal businesses. This requires resolving the taxation puzzle. While the government rightly seeks fiscal consolidation and debt reduction, the focus should be on expanding the tax base rather than squeezing those already heavily taxed.Other bottlenecks include declining competitiveness due to government inefficiencies, particularly in the energy sector, and constraints on capital mobility. Whenever crises emerge, the SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) imposes restrictions on capital flows. Reversing these restrictions requires fresh inflows and reserve accumulation, yet Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves have historically covered only three to four months of imports even in the best periods. These constraints prevent the economy from moving beyond the stability phase. Without a credible growth narrative, investment remains elusive. This explains why, despite a historic rally in the stock market, net foreign portfolio investment remains negative.It is, therefore, about time the government corrected its policies on multiple fronts. Without decisive reforms, investment will remain subdued. While the SBP is optimistic about building reserves to record levels this year, the government must address the energy sector through privatisation of DISCOs and ensure tax equity in the upcoming budget. Otherwise, the quest for a higher FDI will always remain elusive.Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

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brecorderhace 11d

Rising oil prices constitute an important factor to consider

The announcement regarding the replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has now been made public. Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh will be assuming the Fed’s responsibilities. He is regarded as experienced and traditional in his approach, which is expected to help restore stability and uphold the Federal Reserve’s independence.In other news, last week experienced significant fluctuations in the prices of gold and silver, likely experiencing one of their most turbulent sessions ever.The US Dollar took a hit after Donald Trump expressed no concern over a weaker Dollar, resulting in a drop of the USD index to a record low.The market is also closely monitoring developments in the Gulf, particularly the tensions between the US and Iran. Rising oil prices are an important factor to consider regarding this evolving situation. If conditions worsen, attention will turn to the Strait of Hormuz, the region’s primary supply route, which could also affect pricing.There is hope that all involved parties will engage in dialogue to resolve the issue, preventing conflict. Higher oil prices can disrupt economic growth, and even a prolonged situation will keep oil prices elevated, which hampers growth and triggers inflation.A de-escalation of tensions would likely lead to a decrease in oil prices. Furthermore, OPEC was scheduled to convene on February 1st.Last week, the market experienced strong volatility in the prices of gold, silver, and the USD in relation to major currencies. Silver saw a significant drop of over 25%, while gold fell by more than 15% before the recovery.While some might label this a correction, there has been no shift in the geopolitical situation, and tariffs continue to threaten economies.An increase in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) reported last week surpassing expectations indicates that tariff-related costs are contributing to rising prices.The outcome of the January FOMC meeting suggests that the Fed is in no rush to resume easing policy rates, as the economy stabilizes and the labour market is less strained than before.Overall, the FOMC’s assessment appears positive, highlighting improvements in the economy.However, the announcement of the new Fed Chairman may have provided some reassurance in the market, potentially leading to a correction, the effects of which may become clearer in the coming days or weeks. Following the extreme volatility in the financial markets, traders will likely be closely observing market sentiment and movements on Monday morning.At the time of writing this post, the status of the pending government funding bills remains uncertain, which will also be a key factor influencing market movements.In the meantime, while we have observed some extraordinary developments in the metal market, the future direction will likely become clearer in the next few days or weeks.Interestingly, my previous forecast for gold at USD 5500 by December 2026, which I shared in Business Recorder on October 13, 2025, has been reached much sooner than anticipated.Consequently, I am adjusting my target for December 2026 upward to USD 5880.So far, nothing has fundamentally changed. The geopolitical landscape remains fragile and has deteriorated further when considering ongoing global trade issues and security concerns.Trust in the US Dollar and related assets continues to decline. We can clearly see a shift in Central Bank’s investment strategies as they explore alternative options, and investors are likely to follow this trend.Central banks are expected to step in and buy at lower price points to enhance their portfolios.Ultimately, market dynamics will be driven by supply and demand. This suggests an increase in demand for metals, which will likely elevate commodity prices.Honestly, I don’t expect to see another substantial drop of 15 percent to 16 percent all at once. That decline was a historic, one-time occurrence.Gold is supported at USD 4420 and again at USD 4210. The speed of any upward movement will largely hinge on geopolitical developments, with Central Bank purchases remaining a key influence.In my view, demand for physical gold from Russia and Iran will alter market forecasts and maintain strong interest in gold. With a projected global growth rate of 3.3 percent and rising economic activity, a considerable amount of liquidity will likely shift toward gold.If funds are not reinvested in US Treasuries, options will be limited. Therefore, if gold breaks through USD 5480, we could see an additional upward movement of around USD 300 to USD 400, potentially reaching USD 5880.WEEKLY OUTLOOK — FEB 2-6GOLD @ USD 4892— Gold is set for another highly volatile week, with trading anticipated to fluctuate significantly. While gold could experience further declines, as renewed buying interest is likely to aid its recovery. Key support levels are at USD 4760 and USD 4640, with potential break risks at USD 4519. On the upside, if it breaks through USD 5090, it could rise towards USD 5180 and beyond. I wouldn’t be surprised to see buying interest emerge during price dips.EURO @ 1.1848— Euro has support at 1.1740. As long as it remains above this level, it is expected to trend higher. It will need to surpass 1.1970 to potentially reach the 1.2050 levels.GBP @ 1.3682— Pound Sterling needs to hold 1.3570 levels. Otherwise, it could drop further to around 1.3490. On the other hand, if it breaks through 1.3780, it could rise to 1.3850.JPY @ 154.75— The $/Yen pair needs to break past 156.20 to touch 157.60. If it doesn’t, it may weaken. However, a decline below 153.70 poses a risk to drop to 153.10.Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

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brecorderhace 11d

Businessmen laud PM’s new incentives for export industry

LAHORE: The business community has expressed appreciation for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent announcement of incentives for Pakistan’s export industry, according to former Chairman of the Pakistan Readymade Garments Manufacturers & Exporters Association (PRGMEA) North Zone, Adeeb Iqbal Sheikh, who spoke on Sunday. Industry leaders recognised this initiative as a crucial step toward revitalising the country’s manufacturing sector and enhancing its global competitiveness.The timely announcement comes at a critical juncture when Pakistan’s export industry faces unprecedented challenges, particularly with India’s impending free trade agreement with the European Union. There are legitimate concerns among Pakistani exporters that international buyers may shift their sourcing to India once the FTA becomes operational, which could potentially devastate Pakistan’s marketshare in key sectors including textiles, leather goods, and light engineering products.While welcoming the prime minister’s commitment to supporting the export sector, industry stakeholders have emphasised the urgent need for comprehensive policy interventions to safeguard Pakistan’s export interests. They have called for the establishment of a dedicated Export Development Fund, which should be prioritised to provide financial cushioning and capacity building forexporters who are navigating increasinglycompetitive international markets.Most critically, Pakistan must take decisive action to maintain its GSP Plus status with the European Union, which currently provides preferential tariff access to European markets. This trade preference has proven essential for Pakistani exporters to remain competitive in the global marketplace. However, the business community stresses that merely retaining GSP Plus status will be insufficient once India secures its comprehensive FTA with the EU, as Pakistani products would still face a competitive disadvantage.Adeeb Sheikh stated that to level the playing field, Pakistan’s export industry requires a zero percent GST regime. The current taxation structure places an unnecessary burden on exporters, reducing their profit margins and making them less competitive internationally. According to industry leaders, eliminating GST for export-oriented industries would directly translate into better pricing, enhanced competitiveness, and increased market share in global markets.He suggested that Pakistan must urgently reform its labour laws by following the Bangladesh model, which has proven highly successful in attracting foreign investment and facilitating rapid export growth. Bangladesh’s flexible yet fair labour framework has been instrumental in transforming the country into a manufacturing powerhouse, particularly in the ready-made garment sector. Industry experts believe that similar reforms in Pakistan would improve the ease of doing business, attract international buyers, and create millions of employment opportunities for Pakistani workers.Adeeb Sheikh further emphasised that while the government’s recognition of the export sector’s importance is commendable, implementation will be the key to success.The business community stands ready to collaborate with policymakers in developing and executing a robust export strategy that can protect Pakistan’s interests in an increasingly competitive global marketplace. He stressed that time is of the essence, warning that decisive action taken today will determine Pakistan’s economic trajectory for decades to come.The export sector represents a vital component of Pakistan’s economy, and the challenges posed by regional competition require immediate and comprehensive responses. Industry leaders are hopeful that the government will move swiftly to implement the necessary reforms and support mechanisms that will enable Pakistani exporters to maintain their competitiveness and grow their presence in international markets despite mounting regional and global challenges.Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

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brecorderhace 11d

India budget ‘tactical’, not ‘breakthrough’: Moody’s

MUMBAI: India’s annual federal budget was “tactical” but not a “breakthrough”, Moody’s Ratings said in its reaction to a government roadmap for the next financial year.Planned fiscal consolidation, which will bring the budget gap to 4.3 percent from 4.4 percent in the current year, will not change India’s credit profile, Christian de Guzman, senior vice president at Moody’s Ratings, told Reuters. “(Despite India’s) lengthening track record of deficit consolidation or fiscal discipline, this deficit is still wider than what it was prior to Covid,” Guzman said.“We haven’t seen the fiscal metrics improve sufficiently enough to actually change the credit profile,” he said.The economy is seen growing at 7.4 percent in the current financial year, with inflation likely to be near 2 percent. The fiscal deficit for the year is set to be 4.4 percent of gross domestic product.Moody’s Ratings last year affirmed its long-term local and foreign-currency sovereign ratings for Indian and retained its “stable” outlook, citing sustained strength in its economy and reliable domestic funding for its budget deficits.

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brecorderhace 11d

Pakistan’s remittance mirage

Pakistan’s recent brush with macroeconomic stability looks impressive, until one inspects the scaffolding. The economy is being held up not by productivity, exports, or investment, but by an extraordinary and historically anomalous surge in workers’ remittances.These inflows are now brushing up against 9 to 10 percent of GDP, placing Pakistan among the most remittance-dependent large economies on record. Bangladesh, often cited as a peer success story, sits closer to 6 percent, while India, with its vast diaspora, is around 4 percent. This is not diversification. It is concentration risk on a grand scale. More than half of these inflows originate in the Gulf, a region hardly known for geopolitical calm or cyclical stability.In 2025, remittances exceeded $40 billion, roughly equal to the combined value of goods and services exports and comfortably above goods exports alone, by roughly a quarter. Exports, meanwhile, remain stuck below their FY22 highs. Over the past two years, remittances have surged by more than 40 percent, while exports have gone nowhere. This is not an export-led recovery. It is a transfer-fueled one.To be sure, remittances have played a critical stabilizing role. They have plugged balance-of-payments gaps, supported the exchange rate, and powered a modest cyclical rebound. Large-scale manufacturing has posted eye-catching growth rates, reaching double digits in late 2025 and averaging around 6 percent in early FY26. This has prompted the State Bank to lift its FY26 growth forecast above 4 percent.But this rebound is more illusion than renaissance. Growth is being driven by revived domestic demand, not by competitiveness or external traction. Export-oriented sectors continue to underperform. Autos and cement have recovered, but from deeply depressed levels and well short of past peaks. The telltale signs remain: a negative output gap, high unemployment, and chronically underutilized capacity.Investment, the true engine of durable growth, has been conspicuously missing. There has been little progress on export upgrading or credible import substitution. Much of the recent “feel-good” momentum in domestic sectors reflects administrative fixes, such as crackdowns on smuggling via Afghanistan and Iran, rather than productivity gains or structural reform.Macro stability has been engineered the hard way: through punishing fiscal tightening, elevated taxes, and prolonged inflation that has crushed real incomes. For most households, purchasing power remains below 2019 levels. Consumption has revived largely because remittances cushions recipient families, not because the economy has healed.The recovery is sharply K-shaped. Upper-middle and high-income households are snapping up SUVs and crossovers, with volumes soaring. Mass-market vehicles, motorcycles, and other staples lag in the recent growth momentum. Tractors, a reliable proxy for rural health, tell the bleakest story. Sales are down roughly 26 percent in the first half of FY26 and stand at barely half their 2022 levels. Agriculture is under strain from poor pricing policies, shrinking rice exports, border disruptions, and falling farm incomes.Outside a narrow band of services exports, ICT and business process outsourcing may reach $6 billion in FY26, but the cupboard is thin. Textiles are squeezed by weak domestic competitiveness and external headwinds, including US tariffs and intensifying competition in Europe. Even higher-end segments face pressure as trade realignments, including a potential EU–India deal, reshape market access.Geopolitics only sharpens the vulnerability. Pakistan’s strategic relevance attracts attention, but it also magnifies risk, especially when roughly a quarter of remittances come from Saudi Arabia and the bulk from an increasingly volatile Middle East.Remittances have bought Pakistan time, not transformation. They have delayed the next crisis, not removed it. Unless this window is used to rebuild exports, revive investment, and restore productivity growth, today’s stability will look less like a turning point and more like an intermission.Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

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smhhace 11d

Trump’s hand-picked man may not do his bidding

On paper, Trump’s choice to lead the Federal Reserve is an odd one.

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ecns_cnhace 11d

AI push moves innovation into everyday life

For Huang Xiaozhen, the future of artificial intelligence isn't about computing power or algorithmic scale, but about something far more ordinary: the quiet click of a light switch.

#TECH

arynewshace 11d

Telegram founder calls WhatsApp users ‘brain-dead’ if they believe app is secure

Telegram founder Pavel Durov has attacked WhatsApp’s security after Meta, its parent company, faced a U.S. class-action lawsuit. The suit alleges the messaging app misled users about the privacy of its encrypted messages. On Jan. 26, Durov wrote on X: “You’d have to be brain-dead to believe WhatsApp is secure in 2026. When we analyzed [...]

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themarketsdailyhace 11d

SmartKem, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMTK) Short Interest Down 43.6% in January

SmartKem, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMTK – Get Free Report) was the recipient of a large decrease in short interest in the month of January. As of January 15th, there was short interest totaling 14,773 shares, a decrease of 43.6% from the December 31st total of 26,215 shares. Currently, 0.3% of the shares of the company are short [...]

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