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Bitcoin Deleveraging Finally Over? What The Derivatives Data Says
newsbtchace 14d

Bitcoin Deleveraging Finally Over? What The Derivatives Data Says

Bitcoin’s sharp slide to $81,119 on January 30 came with a derivatives-market gut punch: forced long closures spiked to extreme levels, yet perpetual funding stayed decisively positive. That mix is complicating a common read, whether the market has already “cleansed” leverage or is still set up for repeat liquidation waves. Is The Bitcoin Deleveraging Over? On-Chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., in his Morning Brief, pointed to a “cascade of forced closures” over the past 24 hours, with long liquidations dominating the tape. His liquidation dominance oscillator tracking the balance of long versus short liquidations, printed roughly 97%, while the 30-day moving average rose to 31.4%. In plain market-structure terms, that says deleveraging pressure has been heavily one-sided, not just on the day but as a sustained pattern through the last month. The reason traders watch extremes like this is the tendency for liquidation flows to cluster and then fade, creating room for near-term stabilization. Adler framed that dynamic cautiously, stressing that an “extreme” reading is not the same thing as confirmation that sellers are done. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is The Money Of The AI-Powered Economy: CryptoQuant CEO “Oscillator extremes often coincide with the culmination of forced selling and can lead to short-term stabilization. However, this is not a reversal signal without confirmations — for a sustainable ‘local bottom’ scenario, it is important to see at least normalization of the oscillator to zero or a decline in the 30-day average.” That sets the first condition for calling the deleveraging cycle “over”: the liquidation imbalance has to cool, rather than simply peak. The bigger tension in Adler’s read is that even after the washout in price and the liquidation cascade, funding remained positive: 43.2% annualized on the day, by his figures. While that’s well below the 100%+ annualized levels seen during October–November peaks, it still implies a market paying to stay long rather than getting paid to short. Funding doesn’t just reflect sentiment; it reflects positioning pressure. If funding refuses to flip despite a selloff, it can mean longs are rebuilding exposure quickly, or that the market never fully unwound bullish leverage in the first place. Adler’s conclusion is that the latter risk is still on the table. “Positive Funding amid massive liquidations increases the risk of repeated deleveraging: this means the market is recovering long positioning quickly enough or is not ready to fully unwind it. Complete ‘derivatives capitulation’ is often accompanied by Funding transitioning to neutral or negative territory — this has not happened yet.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross That Last Preceded A 66% Drop Is Back In other words, the liquidation event may have been violent, but the incentives embedded in perps are still leaning toward long demand. That matters because it keeps the same fragility in place: a fresh downside impulse can turn newly reloaded longs into liquidation fuel again. Adler summed up the combined signal from the two charts as a washout that may be intense, but not necessarily final. “Together, the two charts paint a picture of likely incomplete deleveraging: liquidations hit longs extremely hard, but overall positioning remains tilted bullish. The liquidation cascade (long dominance ~97%) is a symptom of market overload with long positions, but not necessarily final cleansing. Persistently positive Funding (43% annualized) may indicate that demand for long exposure is not broken, and the deleveraging process is not complete.” Until those confirmations show up, the base case in his briefing is less “final capitulation” and more “incomplete deleveraging”, a market that has already flushed leverage once, but may not be done if long appetite stays intact through drawdowns. At press time, BTC traded at $82,968. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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ZKP Takes the Lead With a $1.7B Forecast, Leaving DOGE and LINK Behind
tekediahace 14d

ZKP Takes the Lead With a $1.7B Forecast, Leaving DOGE and LINK Behind

The crypto market has slowed, with trading volumes hovering near $6 billion. The Dogecoin current price is holding close to $0.12, while Chainlink crypto is moving sideways around $12. These well known assets appear to be losing momentum, raising doubts about whether such mature tokens can still deliver the kind of explosive gains many investors [...]The post ZKP Takes the Lead With a $1.7B Forecast, Leaving DOGE and LINK Behind appeared first on Tekedia.

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Car sales surge across Africa as local production, Chinese brands heat up competition
sundayworldhace 14d

Car sales surge across Africa as local production, Chinese brands heat up competition

New cars are hitting Africa’s roads faster than ever as local production rises and Chinese brands heat up competition with attractive prices. Morocco is speeding production at over 1 million units, surpassing South Africa at nearly 600, 000 units. After years of shortages, high prices and delayed purchases, cheaper imports, lower interest rates and a [...]The post Car sales surge across Africa as local production, Chinese brands heat up competition appeared first on Sunday World.

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Why alcohol tax policy needs urgent reform
dispatchlivehace 14d

Why alcohol tax policy needs urgent reform

Even when presenting the grimmest of budget statements, successive ministers of finance have all found a moment of light-heartedness when they announce increases in alcohol excise tax, which the National Treasury argued in Business Times last week were in

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